Recently I’ve noticed lots of folks saying that crypto is dead, or writing articles about how L1s are way overvalued, or that they’ve wasted 8 years of their life on this industry. In other words, it sounds like people are capitulating.

But I’ve also noticed that I’ve been posting a lot less than usual as well, which is something I don’t believe has ever happened since I fell down the crypto rabbit hole eight years ago. For eight straight years, I’ve pretty much been posting non-stop about crypto in general, or eCash specifically, so what changed? I definitely haven’t capitulated, so what else could it be?

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I feel like the answer is that crypto (and me along with it), is going through a major transition right now. Of course there’s no way to know for sure, but my gut’s telling me that we are undergoing a much needed phase shift, and the age of pure speculation might finally be coming to an end.

Unfortunately, it isn’t because we’ve built our way out of it, but mostly because all the juice has been squeezed. Though BTC is currently worth ninety-grand a coin, it still feels to me like the trenches are dead, CT is dead, and even the Zcash momentum seems to be dying as well. But I also know there are plenty of us out there who still believe in this industry, who still believe that it can change civilization as we know it, so where does that leave us?

I guess what I’m saying is that I think it’s finally time for crypto to grow up. It can no longer just be about hyping people on future promises. We can’t continue competing for the attention of the same group of people in the same old echo chamber and expect a different result.

The reason people are no longer fomoing into crypto is because they’ve concluded there’s nothing to fear as they’re not missing out on anything. It’s been over fifteen years, and crypto hasn’t really delivered much other than some new ETFs and a handful of people who might be considered “crypto famous”.

For crypto to grow up, it has to finally deliver something real. Real products that people want to use, real solutions that solve their problems, not just more twitter slop.

The crypto industry has basically produced nothing but slop the last few years. And I’m not just talking about pointless memecoins. I’m also including every chain that’s just a copy of a copy and isn’t actually building anything useful other than yet another opportunity to enrich early investors.

I obviously have no idea what the future holds. But I am starting to think that time’s running out. It’s now or never. Either crypto delivers on its original promise, or it might soon become too late.

Satoshi famously said that by 2030, we will either have lots of transaction volume, or no transaction volume. I don’t know why, but that quote has always rung true with me, like a message from a time-traveler from the future. That means we only have five years left to generate lots of transactions, so we better hurry.

We can’t rely on proof of social media. It’s time to deliver things that demonstrate real proof of work.

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